canadian real estate crash 1990

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But when you’re in an unprecedented interest-rate environment like today, funny things tend to happen.Through all the noise, the anecdotes of run-down bungalows sparking bidding wars, and the very-reasonable sounding analysis coming out of the banking and real estate industries, there’s one chart that helps keep me grounded.In early 2011 Robert Shiller, the Yale economist best known for his research into asset prices, shared his thoughts on house prices in Canada. And while far from iron clad (it assumed Canadian prices behaved generally similar to U.S. prices before 1990, and the early Canadian data was based on a limited number of housing markets) the resulting chart served to show how unusual this housing boom has been in comparison to booms in the U.S. before 1990. VANCOUVER — Large Wall Street investors who made billions when the U.S. housing market collapsed in 2008 are now betting real estate values in Vancouver and other Canadian cities will crash, financial insiders say.The hedge fund investors, known as short sellers, are betting against what they believe is a housing bubble in Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary and other Canadian cities. A few though, like Cohodes, take the opposite approach.He has come out of semi-retirement on his chicken farm in Northern California to make targeted bets against “subprime” Canadian lenders, who make loan to borrowers rejected by traditional banks.The Canadian housing analyst noted short-selling bets against big Canadian banks have doubled in New York markets in the past several months.

When you're in an unprecedented interest-rate environment, funny things tend to happenFinally, Will Dunning, the chief economist at the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, set out to Confusing, to say the least. 1980s Canadian Real Estate Stories Could Be Written Today Some things never change. A real estate crash is certainly possible. They believe Canadians hold too much mortgage debt, and that Canadian banks, mortgage insurers and “subprime” private lenders will lose money on unpaid loans when property prices fall.“The cross currents are beyond crazy in Vancouver — it’s a mix of money laundering, speculation, low interest rates,” said Marc Cohodes, once called Wall Street’s highest-profile short-seller by He says Vancouver real estate has reached peak insanity, and any number of factors could trigger a collapse.Local real estate professionals predicted the U.S. investors are likely to lose their shirts betting against Vancouver property, which they described as a special market thriving on international demand.But one Canadian housing analyst who advises U.S. clients, including Cohodes, said major investors are currently “building positions” against Canadian housing targets. @BenRabidoux of North Cove Advisors sends along this index chart which shows the real (inflation-adjusted) price of homes in Canada going back to 1956, so not using U.S. data prior to 1990. But rest assured that Royal Bank is preparing for a potential collapse. Source: Canadian Real Estate Association "All indicators pointed to a bubble in the Toronto housing market during the late 1980s and early 1990s," says Dana Senagama, principal market analyst for GTA. And the risk of a sharp housing correction connected to Canadians’ high household debt has risen since December, the Bank of Canada recently reported.While short sellers point to Vancouver as the most extreme housing bubble in Canada, the analyst noted that some investors believe a massive flow of investment from Mainland China makes the market impervious to corrections.Others speculate that if China’s economy slows dramatically, Vancouver housing will bust.“Toronto sees some offshore money from China, but definitely Vancouver is in its own world,” the analyst said.“Some of the guys that have timed this bet think that when China blows up Vancouver will blow up too, but I’m not sure that will happen.”However, one of the world’s most influential investors — Laurence D. Fink, head of the world’s largest asset fund, BlackRock Inc. — recently declared Vancouver property is not only as good as gold, but better.“The two greatest stores of wealth internationally today are contemporary art, and apartments in Manhattan, Vancouver and London,” he told a conference of investors in Singapore.Jonathan Cooper of MacDonald Realty Vancouver says evidence is mounting the city is, in fact, a special market.“It’s an increasingly internationally-focused market with demand not just from Asia, but increasingly from Americans too,” Cooper said. Although the recession was mild relative to other post-war recessions, it was characterized by a sluggish employment recovery, most commonly referred to as a jobless recovery.Unemployment continued to rise through June 1992, even though economic growth had returned the previous year.

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