Despite the headlines of plunging sales by Apple and other multinational companies in recent months, China continues to be the world’s best consumer story.According to consensus forecasts, Chinese consumption is expected to grow by about $6 trillion from today through 2030.
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With today’s knowledge we can predict possible scenarios for population growth in China until 2050 as done by Chen and Liu (2009). “Dual circulation” might not sound like the niftiest moniker for an equity strategy, but it’s a phrase that’s captured the attention of investors in China’s $9.4 trillion stock market.After first raising eyebrows in a May document, the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo last month emphasized that a “dual circulation” strategy will be critical to China’s long-term development. “Preferences of domestic consumers will become more important than international ones in shaping companies’ decisions.”Some of the investor reactions to directives from Beijing have sparked crazes as China’s millions of retail traders, who dominate day-to-day transactions in the onshore market, rushed toward the new theme.In particular defense, consumer and satellite stocks have outperformed lately, including:There are few details on the new approach. Chemicals
China built its economic growth on low-cost exports of machinery and equipment. Sharper drops in sales of individual companies, or even of sales in categories like autos or cosmetics, do not tell the whole story. Sustainability
Others counter that rising incomes will boost demand for upgrading housing.“The proposal has sparked heated discussion,” Peng Wensheng, chief economist at China International Capital Corp., wrote in an Aug. 10 note on the dual-circulation proposal.Peng’s CICC colleagues including analyst Hanfeng Wang wrote earlier in the month that import substitution may become a key trend, with policy makers paying greater attention to security, resilience and effective control of its supply chains.Given the importance of capital markets to financing industrial innovation along with expanding household wealth, it’s also worth watching leading securities firms, exchanges and investment management companies, according to CICC.But for now, it may pay to watch for further details from policy makers.“Investors in China have become accustomed to following the party’s lead, as it often proves to be quite lucrative in the end,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International. “Dual circulation” might not sound like the niftiest moniker for an equity strategy, but it’s a phrase that’s captured the attention of investors in China’s $9.4 trillion stock market. Alumni
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Export growth has continued to be a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth.
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In fact, China’s net trade surplus was only 1.7 percent of GDP in 2017, down from 8 percent in 2008. This reflects a marked contraction in shadow banking financing that grew by 13 percent in 2017, but declined by 7 percent in 2018 (Exhibit 2). Each renminbi of economic stimulus that the government pumped into the economy delivered less in actual GDP growth than in the past.
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china's policies for economic growth