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Some programs, such as Food Stamps, are appropriated entitlements. In other words, this amount would have to be set aside today such that the principal and interest would cover the shortfall over the next 75 years. Instead He Will Add $8.3 Trillion The deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets until reserves are exhausted in 2037, at which point tax income would be sufficient to pay about three fourths of scheduled benefits through 2083. Growing annual deficits are projected to exhaust HI reserves in 2017, after which the percentage of scheduled benefits payable from tax income would decline from 81 percent in 2017 to about 50 percent in 2035 and 30 percent in 2080. For example, CBO estimates that raising the payroll tax by two percentage points (from 12.4% to 14.4%) over 20 years would increase annual program revenues by 0.6% of GDP, solving the 75-year shortfall. At that time, Social Security benefits will begin draining the general fund. Around two thirds of federal spending is for "mandatory" programs. In particular, spending on reconstruction activities in Iraq and Afghanistan has lagged behind available budget authority. Discretionary spending is used to fund the Cabinet Departments (e.g., the Department of Education) and Agencies(e.g., the Environmental Protection Agency), although these are often the recipients of some mandatory funding as well. For FY 2021, the emergency fund is $74.3 billion. This is an increase of 4%, or 2.1% percent real growth after adjusting for inflation. The number of program recipients is expected to increase from 44 million in 2010 to 73 million in 2030.The CBO reported in July 2010 the effects of a series of policy options on the "actuarial balance" shortfall, which over the 75 year horizon is approximately 0.6% of GDP. The rest comes from premiums and the general fund. The proposed DoD base budget represents an increase of $20.5 billion over the $513.3 billion enacted for fiscal 2009.

The mandatory budget will cost $2.966 trillion in FY 2021.Social Security costs the most at $1.151 trillion. As a share of federal budget, mandatory spending has increased over time.From 1991 to 2011, mandatory spending grew from 10.1 percent to 13.6 percent of GDP, according to figures from the Congressional Budget Office.Since the federal government has historically collected about 18.4% of GDP in tax revenues, this means these three mandatory programs may absorb all federal revenues sometime around 2050.According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2011 49.1% of the U.S. population lived in a household where at least one household member received a government benefit including Social Security and Medicare.Mandatory programs are affected by demographic trends. Should these rates return to historical averages, the interest cost would increase dramatically.During 2013, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to purchase about $45 billion of U.S. treasury securities per month in addition to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of Federal spending per capita (that is, per person in the U.S.) was approximately $11,551 during 2011, versus $6,338 in 2000. In addition, the Medicare Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund that pays for physician services and the prescription drug benefit will continue to require general revenue financing and charges on beneficiaries that grow substantially faster than the economy and beneficiary incomes over time.Since the government borrowed and spent the trust funds' assets, there is no "lockbox" or marketable investment portfolio of $2.4 trillion for Social Security or $380 billion for Medicare. Mandatory spending makes up nearly two-thirds of the total federal budget. However, since it is a non-cash expense it is excluded from the budget deficit calculation.Net interest costs paid on the public debt declined from $203 billion in 2011 to $187 billion in 2012 because of lower interest rates. As was true in 2008, Medicare's Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund is expected to pay out more in hospital benefits and other expenditures this year than it receives in taxes and other dedicated revenues. Social Security spending will increase sharply over the next decades, largely due to the retirement of the baby boom generation. During FY2018, the federal government spent $4.11 trillion, up $127 billion or 3.2% vs. FY2017 spending of $3.99 trillion. The number of workers continues declining relative to those receiving benefits.

Further, the CBO also projects that "total federal Medicare and Medicaid outlays will rise from 4 percent of GDP in 2007 to 12 percent in 2050 and 19 percent in 2082—which, as a share of the economy, is roughly equivalent to the total amount that the federal government spends today. The various impacts are summarized in the CBO chart at right.CBO estimated in January 2012 that raising the full retirement age for Social Security from 67 to 70 would reduce outlays by about 13%. Multiple government sources have argued these programs are fiscally unsustainable as presently structured due to the extent of future borrowing and related interest required to fund them; here is a 2009 summary from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees: Social Security alone comprises more than a third of mandatory spending and around 23 percent of the total federal budget. In the absence of a balanced budget, the government will be required to convert these non-marketable securities to marketable securities by borrowing in the future, as trust fund claims are redeemed.Medicare was established in 1965 and expanded thereafter. We'll take a closer look at the first two groups in this lesson. This accrued interest is added to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Security recipients in the future.

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